Will Twitter hit 300M Users? Our data has the answers!

Will Twitter hit 300M Users? Our data has the answers!

Introduction

In the previous quarter ending September 30, 2014, Twitter revealed that they had 284M users[1]. This led many to speculate that Twitter could reach 300M active users as early as the next quarter ending December 31, 2014[2]. This became an especially important target when Instagram announced December 10, 2014, that their Social Network had reached 300M active users[3], making it effectively larger than Twitter. Twitter is expected to report its next quarterly earnings on February 5, 2015 when we will know for sure. In anticipation of the quarterly announcement, I have analyzed data from Twitter over the past year to measure what their quarterly MAU will be.

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Using ‘Google Trends’ for Research? It’s Time To See What Social Media Can Do

Using ‘Google Trends’ for Research? It’s Time To See What Social Media Can Do

iPhone Trends

Google Trends[1] has become an accepted tool for academic research[2][3]. A researcher can enter a keyword, such as “iPhone”, and see the search volume for that keyword over time, normalized by the total search volume. Similar social media tools, like Topsy[4], report the number of tweets mentioning the keyword over time, without normalizing. These raw counts – or impressions – are great for advertisers and marketers. But how do raw counts (not normalized counts) fare for serious research?

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Footnotes    (↵ returns to text)

  1. http://www.google.com/trends/
  2. Preis, Tobias, Helen Susannah Moat, H. Eugene Stanley, and Steven R. Bishop. “Quantifying the advantage of looking forward.” Scientific reports 2 (2012).
  3. Preis, Tobias, Helen Susannah Moat, and H. Eugene Stanley. “Quantifying trading behavior in financial markets using Google Trends.” Scientific reports 3 (2013).
  4. http://topsy.com
A League of their Own: The Impressive Numbers Behind Twitter’s Verified Accounts

A League of their Own: The Impressive Numbers Behind Twitter’s Verified Accounts

Introduction

Previously I looked at the churn, growth and following/follower dynamics for the typical Twitter user[1][2]. In those articles I found that the month-over-month churn was 1.2±0.1% and the growth was 9.8±0.2%. I further found that 11.95±0.6% of accounts are created and abandoned within the first month, leading to large amounts of “dark” accounts on Twitter. When looking at Twitter’s followers and followings, I found that the growth rate for both was fairly consistent: 2.39±0.13 followers/month and 2.47±0.16 followings/month. The close symmetry suggests that most Twitter users are following people who are following them.

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How Much is Too Much? Finding the Social Media Sweet Spot

How Much is Too Much? Finding the Social Media Sweet Spot

Introduction

One element of social media strategy, especially for corporate brands, is how often to post messages to your followers. Tweet too little, and you run the risk of disappearing in a user’s feed. Post too much, and you risk annoying your followers and of being unfollowed. Each company’s social team needs to find a happy medium for their market.
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Twitter Reports User Growth, But are the Numbers Correct?

Twitter Reports User Growth, But are the Numbers Correct?

Introduction

Since Twitter went public in November, 2013, they have reported key performance metrics each quarter. For social media – Twitter, Facebook, and LinkedIn – a key performance metric is monthly active users (MAU). MAU, different from the total user base, is how many unique people have logged in that month. This gives an idea of how many people are actually using the network, instead of how many people have simply registered on the network.
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