Who Will Win American Idol 2015?

Who Will Win American Idol 2015?

Introduction

American Idol 2015 has reached the Final 12, which means its time for our annual American Idol Forecast! From now until the final performance, we will be posting here our prediction of who will get voted off. Predictions will usually be posted at 10 AM (Eastern Time) the day the results will be announced.

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Forget the Phone: Social Media is a More Accurate Way to Predict Vote Results

Forget the Phone: Social Media is a More Accurate Way to Predict Vote Results

Introduction

Previously I developed a model to predict who would get voted off American Idol based on what people were saying on Twitter[1].

To do this, I created a random “focus group” of American Idol fans who are active on Twitter. Each week I looked to see who this group was talking about. Since raw counts can sometime be misleading, I used a simple model for conversation as an exogenous variable for the autoregression. Essentially, it says that each week new people should be talking about successful contestants. So even if a contestant has a large number of mentions, if those mentions are coming from the same group of people, then the contestant is in danger of being voted off.

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Forget the Crystal Ball: Social Media Can Help Predict the Future

Forget the Crystal Ball: Social Media Can Help Predict the Future

Introduction

In previous articles, I have focused on what Twitter can tell us about people’s past behaviour. While this can be extremely useful, Twitter can also be used to predict future events. In most of these cases, researchers attempt to find a correlation between Twitter activity (such as mentions or sentiment) and some real world outcome. Correlation is a start, but it is not a predictive model.
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