Previously I developed a model to predict who would get voted off American Idol based on what people were saying on Twitter.
To do this, I created a random “focus group” of American Idol fans who are active on Twitter. Each week I looked to see who this group was talking about. Since raw counts can sometime be misleading, I used a simple model for conversation as an exogenous variable for the autoregression. Essentially, it says that each week new people should be talking about successful contestants. So even if a contestant has a large number of mentions, if those mentions are coming from the same group of people, then the contestant is in danger of being voted off.